Tasmanian state politics by Fieldwork · updated Monday 12 October 2026
Jeremy Rockliff leads a Liberal minority government with 14 of 35 seats. One Nation didn't stand at the 2025 election, yet now polls close to Labor. Here is the average of the latest polls.
New features on the tracker, and Fieldwork's take on what the numbers mean for Tasmanian politics.
Results for all 29 councils, straight from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission's results pages.
On Tasmanian politics, campaigns and organising.
| Council | Turnout | Mayor | Deputy | Councillors |
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Figures come from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission's results pages and are checked every couple of minutes during the count. The Commission's figures are the official ones.
Turnout is the share of enrolled voters whose ballot was returned. Voting was by post and compulsory.
The arrows show the change in a candidate's first preference share since 2022, for the same position. They only appear for candidates who stood for that position last time. Hobart, Launceston and Clarence went from 12 councillors to 9 and other councils changed size too, so councillor shares aren't directly comparable between the two elections.
Stages of the count. Mayors are counted by hand first, then deputy mayors. Each starts with first preferences. If no one has more than half, the lowest candidates are excluded one at a time and their votes passed on. Councillor ballots are typed in, which takes days for the bigger councils. Along the way the Commission runs the full preference count on about 20% and then 50% of the votes entered, as a guide. Candidates "elected" at those stages are provisional. Most hold, but the last seat or two often change, and nobody has won until the final count. Early first preferences can also move, because votes don't arrive in random order. Kevin Bonham's blog explains the count in detail and follows the close races.
The field. Sitting councillors are those elected in 2022 and standing again; the few who came onto a council through a recount since then count as having stood, not won, in 2022. Newcomers are candidates who didn't stand for anything in 2022. The count of women goes by first names, because the Commission publishes no gender data, and names that could go either way are left out. Greens endorsed candidates are the ones who say so in their candidate statements. Labor and the Liberals don't endorse council candidates in Tasmania.
Party tags. Council elections in Tasmania are run without party tickets, but some candidates have stood for a party before. Where a candidate has been an endorsed party candidate at a state or federal election since 2010, or at a Legislative Council election, the tag shows the most recent party and year. It is context, not a current endorsement; some have since left the party or now sit as independents. Matches go by surname and first name against the Australian Electoral Commission's candidate files and the published state candidate lists, so a shared name can mislead. Corrections are welcome.
Turnout and informal rates from the July 2025 state election are given for scale. They come from the Commission's results for each House of Assembly division; a council's figure uses the division its polling places fall in.
Mayors and deputy mayors are elected by preferential voting, like the Legislative Council, so a winner needs more than half the votes after preferences. Councillors are elected by Hare-Clark, like the House of Assembly. A candidate needs a quota, which is the formal votes divided by one more than the number of seats, plus one. The dashed line on the councillor chart marks the quota. A mayor or deputy mayor also has to win a seat as a councillor.
State politics from ABC Tasmania, Pulse Tasmania and the Tasmanian Times. Each links to the original story.
Every published state poll since the 2014 election, and a plain average of the latest one from each pollster. Pick a time period to zoom in or out.
This isn't analysis. It brings publicly available polls together in one place so they're easier to read. For analysis of Tasmanian polling, read Kevin Bonham's blog, and if you find it useful, support his work with a donation (there's a PayPal button in the blog's sidebar).
Lines show the average as it stood after each poll. Faint dots are individual polls, hollow if commissioned. Squares mark election results.
* Independents and other minor parties together: this poll didn't report independents separately.
Figures as each pollster published them, with undecided voters excluded. Polls before the July 2025 election are as tabled on Wikipedia, linked on each row. uComms asked undecided voters which way they leaned, so its figures are Kevin Bonham's conversion. "Other" includes SFF and Nationals. One Nation was first offered as an option in February 2026.
Take the most recent poll from each pollster whose fieldwork ended in the last 90 days, and average their published figures. Each pollster counts once. There's no weighting for sample size, method or past accuracy, and no adjustment of any kind. Commissioned polls stay out unless you tick the box above.
For earlier periods the same rule runs at each poll date, and the average starts afresh at each election so polls from before an election don't count after it. Between 2014 and 2018 EMRS was often the only pollster in the field, so the line there is mostly EMRS. Earlier polls also came from ReachTEL, Roy Morgan, MediaReach, YouGov, Redbridge and Wolf & Smith.
The page shows no seat numbers. Turning Hare-Clark primary votes into seats depends on quotas, candidate draw and preference flows that polls don't measure. For seat estimates and analysis of each poll, see Kevin Bonham's blog.
What the Liberals, Labor and the Greens are putting out media releases about, and how they're saying it. Every release on their websites from 14 July to 12 October, 611 in all, has been coded by issue and tone.
Share of each party's media releases on each of 10 issues. Tap an issue to see the headlines behind it.
Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, read all 611 releases in full. Each one gets a main issue, a second issue where there's a clear one, and one type:
The issue chart counts main issues. Open an issue to see how many more releases have it as their second issue. in the tone figures but not the issue chart.
Keeping it current. New releases are added automatically twice a day and coded the same way. Earlier releases aren't re-coded, and the figures always cover the 90 days to the newest release.
Limits. One AI coder made every call, so borderline cases are judgement. The Liberals' figures are government releases from the Premier's website, so they aren't like-for-like with the opposition parties' releases. Social media, ads, speeches and parliament aren't included.
| Issue | What's in it |
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What each party received, and who the disclosed donors are. All figures come from the Australian Electoral Commission and the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Each party's Tasmanian branch. Source: AEC annual returns, published February 2026. Returns for 2025-26 are due to be published in February 2027.
Tasmania began requiring parties to disclose donations over $1,000 on 1 July 2025, so this is newer, more detailed data than the 2024-25 returns. It covers 1 July 2025 to 12 October 2026.
Reportable donations (gifts totalling more than $1,000 from one donor) to each party or its candidates. Source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Search every disclosure yourself on the TEC disclosures portal.
Why individual donors aren't named here. Most are private citizens, so there's no need to list them here. Every donation, with the donor's name, is publicly reported on the TEC disclosures portal.
Union: trade unions and union peak bodies. Business and industry: companies, family companies and trusts, and industry associations such as the Pharmacy Guild or the Hotels Association. Individual: people giving in their own name, including MPs donating to their own party. Other party branches: money from Labor's national office and Victorian branch.
Not counted as donations: a $500,000 reportable loan to the Liberals from the Trustee for Gatenby Investment Fund in August 2025, and transfers from a party to its own candidates. Where the same donation appears in both the old and new TEC registers it is counted once. Individual donors are not named here, but every disclosure is public on the TEC website.
In the 2024-25 panel, "Party and associated entities" means money from other branches of the same party and from entities the AEC lists as associated with it, Unions that the AEC lists as associated entities of Labor are counted as unions. "Not itemised" is the rest of each party's total receipts, from sources under the $16,900 threshold, plus membership, fundraising and public funding.
The two panels cover different periods and use different thresholds, so their figures can't be added or compared directly.
Companies and organisations that pay a lobbying firm to deal with the Tasmanian Government for them, as listed on the Integrity Commission's register of lobbyists. The register shows who the clients are. Ministers' published diaries show some of who they met.
Each card is a registered firm. Tap a card to see its clients, search for a company, or pick an industry to see who represents it.
Ministers publish a monthly diary of their meetings and events. These are the diary entries from that name a lobbying firm or one of its clients. A meeting with a client may have had nothing to do with its lobbyist, and many entries are speeches, dinners and group briefings.
Entries where the lobbying firm itself is named in the diary, usually alongside the client it brought.
Lobbying clients named in a minister's diary, most often first. Tap a client to see each entry.
Source: ministerial diaries, Department of Premier and Cabinet, matched against the register by organisation name. Diaries leave out personal, party and electorate business and meetings held only by staff. Only organisations are shown here, not the people who attended. Collected .
Organisations that are lobbying clients and have also made donations disclosed to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission since 1 July 2025. Appearing on both registers is legal and common. It doesn't mean one is connected to the other.
The register of lobbyists is kept by the Integrity Commission. It covers third-party lobbyists: firms paid to lobby for a client. Organisations that lobby for themselves, such as industry bodies, unions and companies with their own government relations staff, aren't on it. Registration is required under the Government's lobbying code of conduct, which is a policy, not a law.
Firms list the clients they currently lobby for, so the register has no history and no record of meetings. A bill from Meg Webb MLC would add a public log of lobbying contacts. It hasn't passed.
Party ties. A firm is marked only where a named principal or founder has held a senior, publicly documented role with a party: an MP, a minister, chief or deputy chief of staff to a Premier or minister, or senior adviser to a Premier or Prime Minister. A firm with principals from both major parties is marked as having Liberal and Labor ties, and shows under both filters. Other firms may have staff with party backgrounds that aren't marked here. A firm with ties to one party can still work with all parties, and a mark says nothing about how a firm or its clients behave.
Unions that lobby for themselves aren't on the register, which is why few appear here.
Industry groupings (shown when you hover or filter) were made for this page from each client's name and public description, so some judgement is involved. Client names are shown as each firm lists them. Collected from the register on 13 October 2026.
Statewide first preferences at the last five state elections, with today's polling average as the last point.
Solid points are election results. The dashed line runs to today's polling average, a survey reading and not a result.
The Liberals and Labor combined
Dotted line marks 50%.
| Election | Result | Lib | Lab | Grn | Ind | Others | Largest other | Seats Lib / Lab / Grn / other |
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House of Assembly first preferences as counted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. The house had 25 seats until it went back to 35 at the 2024 election.
The 52nd Parliament, elected July 2025. No party has a majority, which takes 18 of the 35 House of Assembly seats.
Five electorates (Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, Lyons) elect seven members each by Hare-Clark. Helen Burnet left the Greens to sit as an independent in January 2026. The next election is due by 2029. The House sits again on Tuesday 27 October.
The upper house has 15 members, one for each division, elected for six-year terms. A few seats come up each May, so the whole house is never elected at once. Most members are independents, so every bill needs crossbench votes to pass. The latest elections, in May 2026, left the balance unchanged.
Both chambers are drawn as a horseshoe, with government members on the left, Labor on the right and the crossbench at the end. It shows each party's numbers, not the exact seating plan.
Who asks, who answers, and what about. Every question asked in Question Time in the House of Assembly since the 52nd Parliament first sat on 19 August 2025, taken from Hansard. Pick a party or a member to see their questions.
Tap a question to open the Hansard transcript at that page. The bar and badge show who asked; tap a name to see every question they have asked this Parliament. The small square shows the topic.
Each sitting day's Hansard transcript is downloaded from the Parliament of Tasmania and every question in Question Time is read off it: its title, who asked it and which minister answered. Supplementary questions, constituency questions and answers to questions on notice aren't counted. Recent days use the uncorrected proof, which can change slightly in the final Hansard.
Issues come from the title Hansard gives each question, matched to the issue groups used for media releases, so a few questions may sit in a neighbouring group. Party is the member's party at the time: Helen Burnet's questions before 2 January 2026 count as Greens. Estimates weeks have no Question Time and aren't included. Where a question title names a private individual, the name is left out here.
These are questions, not votes. How members vote in divisions is recorded in Hansard too and could be added later.
How much time Tasmania's 12 senators and 5 federal MPs spend on the record: speaking in the chamber, questioning at Senate Estimates and at committee hearings. Ranked against every senator and MP since the 48th Parliament first sat on 22 July 2025. Tap a name for the breakdown.
Words spoken measures time on the record, not results. Work in committees behind closed doors, in the electorate and on reports doesn't show up here. Labor senators are in government, so they ask few questions at Estimates: that's how Estimates works, so compare them with each other rather than with the opposition and crossbench.
Chamber. Every speech in the Senate and the House of Representatives from OpenAustralia's copy of Hansard, counting each member's words, excluding interjections. Ranks are against everyone who sat in that chamber in the period.
Estimates and committees. Every committee transcript published on the Parliament of Australia website since July 2025: Estimates hearing days and other committee hearings. Words are counted for each senator by name. Whoever chairs a hearing is recorded as "Chair", so a chair's words aren't credited to them here. For House MPs only committee hearings are shown, as Estimates is a Senate process.
Topics. Each chamber speech is grouped by the title of the debate it was part of, so a speech in a bill debate counts toward that bill's subject. Procedural business and tributes are left out. "Tasmania in the title" is the share of a member's chamber words spoken in debates whose titles name Tasmania or a Tasmanian place.
Time. Hours are estimated from words spoken, at 140 words a minute, so they're a guide to time on the record rather than a stopwatch. Rankings use the words themselves.
Data runs to .
The events that shaped this parliament, each dated and linked to its source.
Tasmanian politics, in long form.
Politics here is small enough that one email, petition or submission gets read.
The pages this tracker checks for changes, what it looks for on each, and when each last changed.
| Page | What's checked | Latest | Last changed | Last checked |
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Checked automatically twice a day, morning and evening Hobart time. "New" marks anything that changed in the last three days.
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